LONDON, 20/08/2026. Thrust Carbon today published new research showing that on many of the world's busiest flight routes, booking early doesn't just save money, it determines whether the traveller flies direct. Book late under a standard lowest logical fare policy, and the same rule that was meant to control cost quietly reroutes travellers onto journeys with layovers. For business travellers, booking early is a time and comfort saving, not a cost one.
Analysing fares on 200 of the world's busiest routes, captured both five weeks and one week before departure, Thrust Carbon found that the direct flight is the cheapest ticket on 71% of comparable routes when booked five weeks out, but on only 50% when booked a week out. For example, on the Denver to San Francisco route, the direct flight cost £154 a week before departure, £24 more than the £130 fare via Salt Lake City. Booked five weeks out, the same nonstop cost £58, £21 cheaper than the £79 connecting fare.
The consequential shift isn’t the increase of £24, it’s how that impacts the business traveller. The traveller books the connecting flight because it is policy, and as a result spends at least 2 hours on a layover. Corporate travel policies have got their incentives backwards: the cost saving is real, but it’s not what changes a traveller's mind.
“We keep telling travellers to book early because it saves the company money, but that's not really why it matters,” said Kit Aspen, CEO of Thrust Carbon. “Book early and you keep the nonstop flight. Book late, and you’ll be having a layover. If you want to change traveller behaviour, you need to give them a real benefit.”
The full findings, including the patterns on quieter and long haul routes, are set out in Thrust Carbon's whitepaper, available to download here.
Sources
All figures from Thrust Carbon research analysing Google Flights fares across 401 routes, captured 1 week and 5 weeks before two August/September 2026 departure dates.
Media contact: Josh Loyd — josh@thrustcarbon.com